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To assess student knowledge, educators face a tradeoff between open-ended versus fixed response questions. Open-ended questions are easier to formulate, and provide greater insight into student learning,vbut are burdensome. Machine learning methods that could reduce the assessment burden also have a cost, given that large datasets of reliably assessed examples (labeled data) are required for training and testing. We address the human costs of assessment and data labeling using selective prediction, where the output of a machine learned model is used when the model makes a confident decision, but otherwise the model defers to a human decision-maker. The goal is to defer less often while maintaining human assessment quality on the total output. We refer to the deferral criteria as a deferral policy, and we show it is possible to learn when to defer. We first trained an autograder on a combination of historical data and a small amount of newly labeled data, achieving moderate performance. We then used the autograder output as input to a logistic regression to learn when to defer. The learned logistic regression equation constitutes a deferral policy. Tests of the selective prediction method on a held out test set showed that human-level assessment quality can be achieved with a major reduction of human effort.more » « less
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